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急速赛车彩票开奖记录:Changsheng Fund: Investment growth stock must know these things

时间:2018/6/12 19:43:26  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:I. Advantages of growth stocksGrowth is an eternal topic. Growth stocks have emerged from a large number of cattle stocks due to the rapid a...

I. Advantages of growth stocks

Growth is an eternal topic. Growth stocks have emerged from a large number of cattle stocks due to the rapid and rapid growth of their company's performance. A company's start-up period, growth period, maturity period, and recession period is a complete cycle. Almost every company can't escape the process. Only some companies have a longer process time.

There are many uncertainties and relatively high risks during the initial period of the company. Gradually, the enterprises are gradually on the right track, and they have mastered some core competitive advantages. The rapid development of the company and the rapid growth of their performance. When the company grows to a certain degree, it will meet the ceiling of the industry development. Because its products are owned by almost everyone, it can no longer increase the sales of more products every year as before, and it is difficult to continue its rapid growth. , But its products are very stable, and such companies have reached maturity.

Mature companies have a very low valuation due to high performance growth. This category is favored by Yantai value investing enthusiasts because they are stable and have less risk. Buffett compares it to cigarette butts. Not very optimistic, but you can still smoke two cigarettes thrown away on the ground. The long-term company has enjoyed rapid growth due to the rapid development of the company, so the valuation enjoyed is relatively high, and a large number of bull stocks emerge from such companies. However, due to the high valuation of growth companies, if the company's performance growth is not as expected, it will suffer the risk of a sharp decline in the stock price. Therefore, stocks for growth stocks are more demanding on the ability of investors.

Another important factor for investing in growth stocks is that you can use Davis double clicks to realize excess returns that are much higher than the market average yield. This method is mainly to use the Davis double-click effect. When the price-earnings ratio and the price caused by market sentiment are low, buying companies with higher growth rate, along with the rapid growth of the company's performance, along with the recovery of market sentiment, The market's optimism has given the company's expectation to increase substantially, and the valuation has increased substantially, so as to enjoy the two-way excess return of the company's performance growth and market valuation enhancement. This method is mainly to use market sentiment and company performance growth to carry out large-band medium and long-term investment, and has a relatively high grasp of buying and selling time.

Davis's principle: 1. Double-click (return on performance growth + gain on valuation = increase in stock price). 2. Double kill (loss in net profit + loss in valuation = loss in stock price).

For example: I once invested in Kangli Elevator Co., Ltd. At the end of 2012, it was a bear market. At that time, the trading volume of all the stocks of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was less than 80 billion. The investors passed the early period. The long bear market was plagued with pessimism and the market was very sluggish. At this time, the minimum market value of Kangli Elevator was only less than 2.3 billion. To facilitate the calculation and statistics, we took the stock's total market value on December 31, 2012 as 3 billion, and the company's net profit in 2012 was 187 million. It is 16 times P/E. Subsequently, the company grew rapidly in two years. On December 31, 2014, the company’s net profit was 402 million, which was a year-on-year increase of 115.2% in net profit of 187 million in 2012. The total market value of the company in 2014 was 8.2 billion yuan, which represented a year-on-year increase of 173.3% in the total market value of 3 billion yuan in 2012. From this we conclude that the return on equity of 173.3% is 58.1% higher than the growth of net profit of 115.2%, and the higher yield of 58.1% is due to the increase in the valuation of the price-earnings ratio as a result of market sentiment. Let's take a look at the expected changes in the valuation of the company. As of December 31, 2014, the company's total market capitalization was 8.2 billion yuan, and the net profit was 402 million yuan. The corresponding price-earnings ratio was calculated to be 20.4 times, and the company's December 31, 2012 The valuation of the price-earnings ratio is 16 times. The valuation in 2014 is obviously higher than the valuation in 2012. So Davis double-clicking is the profit of net profit growth plus the gain of valuation increase, which is equal to the ultimate excess return!

Second, stock selection master stock selection method

Philip Fisher (Philips Fisher) is the father of the growth investment strategy of the growth stocks. His most famous book, "How to Choose Growth Stocks," received extensive attention. He proposed that 15 strategies for growing stock selection stocks are widely used by investors. The following are the stock selection conditions that Fisher put forward:

1. This company's Does the product or service have sufficient market potential and can the business grow substantially in at least a few years?

2. Is the management of the company determined to continue to develop new products or processes as a new growth point of the company to further increase the overall sales level?

3. How big is the R\u0026D work compared to the size of this company?

4. Does this company have a superior sales team?

5. Is the profit rate of this company high?

6. What did the company do to maintain or improve its profitability?

7. Is the company's labor and personnel relations very good?

8. Is this company's senior executive relationship very good?

9. Does the company's management have sufficient leadership and depth?

10. How is the company's cost analysis and accounting records done?

11. Is this company unique in most areas?

12. Does the company have any short-term or long-term earnings outlook?

13. In the foreseeable future, will the company issue a large number of shares of ?

14. Isn't the company's management only reporting good news to investors?

15. Is there no doubt about the honesty and integrity of the company's management?

Third, growth stocks are the most important thing

Although growth stocks Master Fisher listed 15 stock selection conditions, but we can not actually meet the 15 conditions in the actual stock selection, basically only meet In part, how to choose between them becomes an important issue. Next, based on my many years of growth stock investment experience and understanding, sum up the most important things in the investment growth stocks!

1st important thing: Excellent top management.

In the short term, the influence of the company's leadership on the development of a company will not be too obvious, of course, short-term will not care about whether the investment is a growth stock. However, as a growth stock investor, in the long run, the highest leadership of a company determines the future fate of a company. Because the company's daily operations, long-term layout, choice of roads, and cohesion of the entire team require a good top management. In the long run, the highest leadership of a company is the most important core competitiveness of the company. For example, the highest leader of a company is unpopular, and even if there are more talents in the company, it will be lost. Can a company grow slowly from a very small company to become a great company, requiring top management to have a vision for long-term distribution, requiring top management to solve the difficulties encountered in the development process and requiring top management The decisive and correct judgment at a critical moment. If the United States does not have Jobs, will it become the world's first high-tech enterprise? If no Dong Mingzhu, Gree air-conditioning can outperform many other air-conditioning companies, becoming China's current best-selling, most profitable air-conditioning business? From ancient times, many Yoshiomi general, when choosing the career path of the primary consideration is to choose an enlightened ruler! So for long-term investors, the top management of a company is the soul of a company. We must invest in a company and put the management of the company in the most important position. In addition, in addition to focusing on the company's top leadership, we must also focus on the company's entire core management team!

Very good top management:

1. The actual controller is correct. The Tao is able to unite people's hearts and gather together team talents. The grandson said: “The way of the king is to make the people and the king’s wishes identical and unite in one heart, so that one can die for the king and be born for the king, so that he is not afraid of danger.”

2. There is ambition and fighting spirit. Enthusiasm. An entrepreneur full of vitality and ambition is the driving force for the company's development. Think of what happens when a company boss doesn't want to grow big.

3. Understand capital operations. As an ordinary company, you can't understand the capital operation, but to be a strong listed company, you need to know how to use the capital market and know how to operate capital. Looking back at many great companies in history, such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, , etc., there is no company that does not use the capital platform to acquire good companies, good technology, and good team. It destroys the enemy through capital operation and strengthens itself.

4. Very concerned about the stock price of the company. It is very important that the management of a listed company pays attention to the stock price of the company and properly manages the market value. Imagine a listed company that does not care about the stock price of the company (the number of state-owned enterprises is relatively large). When there is a systemic risk of a stock price crash, the company will turn a blind eye to the lack of support. Is it a sad reminder?

5, good wine will have to drink. Children who cry have milk and companies that can savor are easily sought after by funds.

6. Experience in the company's main business. A top management who understands the company's main industry is less likely to be fooled by others, and at the same time it will take a lot of detours in the company's strategic decision-making. If the top management does not understand it, then the professional manager hired must be a person who understands the industry and is very responsible!

2nd important thing: Small companies in large industries.

Why should growth stocks emphasize small companies in large industries? We invest in a company. Although this company has a very strong competitive advantage in this industry, it is doing very well in this industry and is the industry leader. The leader is the leader, yes, but if the company has occupied the majority of the market share of the entire industry, and the industry space is relatively small, then the company can not continue to grow rapidly. For example, the total annual sales of an industry is 80 billion, and this company is the industry's leading annual sales of 60 billion, while the industry is in slow growth or stop growing, such companies will basically have little growth.

Company without growth:

1. Industry demand is relatively small. In an industry where space is small and demand is small, there have never been great companies. In an industry with small space and low demand, there will never be enough profit to nourish the growth of a great company unless the company can successfully transition to a broad industry successfully.

2. Market share reached absolute possession. The company's absolute market share in the industry is very high. Most of the entire market is company products. Companies can no longer sell more products in this industry.

3. Big Macs that developed to the ceiling. Although the company's industry is very large, the company has grown to a giant-size ceiling and no way to grow fast. For example, China Petroleum In 2014, companies with sales revenue exceeding RMB20 trillion could still double their sales of petroleum products within a few years. Basically impossible, so such companies have no growth, even if they have growth is very slow, generally such companies have low valuations.

The third important thing is to have the core competitiveness that other competitors in the industry do not have.

The core competitiveness of a company includes a lot of niche barriers in addition to the well-known management team. The core competitiveness of a company is very important. It determines the future development position of the company in this industry.

What are the core competitiveness (barriers, niches)?

1, brand barriers. Such barriers to the promotion of the general high promotional costs. Brand barriers refers to a company's products have been widely recognized by consumers, so that consumers very much agree with the company, the company's brands are trusted. Such as today's, computers and cell phones we all think the best Apple brand, even if we are willing to buy expensive Apple brand products, fruit powder is what makes it crazy? Cola drink look for Pepsi Cola and Coke, Coke Is very year China produced really do not they good? Perfume Chanel sold well, does its perfume really be awesome? LV bag expensive luxury, is it its high technology content? In fact, most of these companies except Apple high-tech companies are ordinary consumer products that do not have scientific and technological content. They use the excellent brand image established by quality and publicity. Sometimes brand barriers are more persistent than technical barriers because of continuous development of technology and continuous updating of technology. The emergence of new technologies will allow old technologies to be eliminated quickly.

2. Technical barriers. These barriers are generally expensive to research and development. The rapid development of technology has led to the rapid development of many companies with innovative capabilities. This type of company is often a high-tech and consumer-related company, such as consumer electronics. Technology companies are the easiest to get out of the dark horses. They quickly gain the popularity of consumers with technologies that make humans more comfortable, more demanding, and more advanced. The sales of products have grown exponentially. At the same time, the company’s performance has also grown rapidly, and the company has grown rapidly. Rapidly rising sharply, this company often develops at an alarming rate. It is a concentration camp for big black horse stocks. After 2000, a large number of high-tech companies such as Microsoft, , Cisco , Google and Apple emerged. However, this kind of technology-based company also has a fatal drawback, that is, the rapid development of technology, new and better technology products may soon be updated to replace the company's products, if at this time the company can not successfully develop new products with core competitive technology, with Keeping your technology leading position will soon be eliminated. For example Eastman Kodak The company (Eastman Kodak Company) is a very brilliant high-tech company that used to be a camera in the late 1990s. It used to operate in more than 150 countries and has more than 80,000 employees. Years later, due to the rapid development of digital high-tech products, digital cameras and digital memory cards quickly replaced ordinary cameras and film. Consumers no longer use ordinary cameras and film. As the company did not timely seize the opportunity for transformation, Kodak soon. The annual performance began to decline, and in early 2012 the company declared bankruptcy. Coincidentally, Nokia once dominated the global mobile digital business with mobile phones, the company's share price continued to rise sharply, creating a lot of wealth myths, but when Apple introduced smart tablet phones and Google launched Android smart system, the company did not seize the consumption in time For a new generation of smart phones, the demand and desire for change, just a few years later Nokia left the altar, the business continued to decline sharply, and eventually acquired by Microsoft.

3. Administrative barriers. Companies in this category tend to have relatively stable performance. In some industries, involving national security, public safety, and interest groups, barriers will be formed in administrative approval. This prevents other companies from entering a certain industry, a region, a business, etc., and prevents other companies from participating in competition, resulting in insufficient competition in the industry or monopoly. For example, due to serious environmental pollution in China, the dye industry is a highly polluting industry. In recent years, the country has become strict with industry entry standards. At the same time, it has closed down some small and heavily polluting dye factories and promoted mergers and acquisitions so that the leading players in the industry become bigger and stronger. Conducive to environmental management. As a large number of competitors were closed down and mergers and acquisitions, the industry formed certain enterprises to concentrate and monopolize. On the one hand, these leading companies strengthened environmental protection. On the one hand, the company’s net profit began to increase substantially, and the company’s net profit began to increase substantially. The industry’s performance has shown . At the same time, the company's share price rose from 2.08 yuan in November 2012 to 21.9 yuan in June 2015 (previous recovery price). There are also many industries that also have administrative monopoly barriers. However, we need to pay attention to the problem. Although there are many companies that have administrative barriers, we must try to avoid giant companies that have reached the ceiling and choose to have administrative barriers. High-growth small companies. Such as China National Petroleum Corporation, the state-owned four major banks , such a giant company, although there are administrative barriers to shelter, but it can in a few years sales revenue can increase more than 100%? Can not! Can it easily increase the selling price? Can not!

4. Resources barriers. Such companies form barriers with unique resource advantages. Such companies use their unique resource advantages to obtain pricing power and high gross interest rate . For example, China has the world's largest reserves of rare earths. The state-owned company's share of rare earth resources has risen sharply thanks to its unique rare earth resources. Kweichow Moutai Relying on its brand promotion and the unique wine cellar, the wine produced is welcomed by everyone. The company has continued to grow for many years, and the stock price has continued to rise for many years. The investors have received very generous returns.

5. Funds barriers. Funding barriers refer to industries that require very large capital investment to enter. However, capital barriers have relatively little influence on listed companies. The financial barriers are relatively weak in China, a market that is more likely to raise capital.

4th important thing: continuous and rapid growth in operating income.

For long-term investment growth stocks, the long-term sustainable growth of a company's operating income I see it more important than the growth of net profit. The reason is that a company whose operating income ceases to grow has an unsustainable increase in its net profit. A company whose operating income has stopped growing can increase its net profit by compressing financial expenses, reducing employee expenses, selling off idle assets, and compressing raw material costs. However, the increased net profit of this method cannot be sustained in the long term because it cannot continuously reduce financial expenses, staff salaries, and raw material costs each year. Therefore, it is only possible to maintain long-term sustainable growth in the net profit of a company whose operating income continues to grow for a long time. If we compare the net profit to the numerator, the operating income is the denominator, and no denominator is equal to zero. If we compare the net profit to golden eggs, then the golden egg hen is the operating income.

5th important thing: sustained and rapid growth of net profit.

When selecting growth stocks, we try to select the stocks whose profit maintains sustained and rapid growth and which are relatively stable, and the companies whose best operating income and net profit growth rate show signs of acceleration. What is called accelerated growth? Acceleration is, for example, the company’s operating income and net profit increased by 30% last year. The company’s operating income and net profit increased by 35% this year. This is faster than last year’s growth rate. The faster the acceleration, the faster the stock price will rise. Try to avoid some companies with operating income and net profits falling and falling, and those that are unstable are not easy to grasp, and it is easy to fake.

The increase in net profit represents the return that a company can make after investing. For a company that is growing rapidly, continuous growth in net profit is an essential condition. Whether it is the company doing physical investment or we are investing in stocks, the investment is ultimately about profits. All that was previously was to pave the way for profits. The source of net profit continues to grow rapidly, and more cash flow can be obtained. In addition to the distribution part, most of these funds are reinvested according to the needs of the consumer market. The company has more products to meet the market demand and thus obtain more cash. Return.

Of course, any company in the development process will encounter difficulties in the middle of the development process, which will lead to a temporary suspension of profit growth. At this time, we must carefully analyze whether the company’s profits stop growing as a temporary or persistent dilemma. If this is a temporary dilemma, , then we can every company after the temporary dilemma caused by the stock price fell sharply, when the price is low, buy at dips, you can get excess returns. (See my specifics: Seeking the excess return through the bull and bear "predicament reversal" series of three)

6th important thing: the company's debt is below the safe range and has a large amount of cash.

It is an indispensable process for a company to use debt to accelerate the pace of development through debt borrowing. Although a company that does not borrow money develops steadily, it will generally develop at a much slower rate than companies that are good at leveraging capital leverage. However, if the company’s external debt is too high, which will affect the company's normal business turnover, or when the insolvency situation is in place, the company may face a devastating blow. Imagine a company that is in debt all day. It is collecting debt everywhere. Is it okay to run it? A general asset liability of no more than 50% is a relatively safe and reasonable proportion of a company's debt. When it exceeds 50%, we should be vigilant. Of course, we still need to distinguish between industries. The asset-liability ratio of the heavy asset industry is generally higher than that of other industries. However, if the high is not very far off then it is also safe, such as equipment manufacturing. However, if asset-liability ratios in a light asset services industry are very high, we must be vigilant. Because they are not fund-intensive companies, but they have a lot of liabilities, then there may be problems with the company. We need to analyze the reasons carefully. And pay attention.

When the company maintains the range of assets and liabilities, it also needs some cash. Of course, the more the better. A large amount of cash can support the day-to-day operations of the company, help the company get out of the difficulties, and facilitate the company's outbound M\u0026A.

7th important thing: PEG price-earnings ratio compared to net profit growth (good price).

We talked about 6 points in front of us. It is also very important to talk about the last point of PEG. It can be said that the first six points are the foreshadowing of stock selection, and the last one is the key point for deciding whether a growth stock is worth buying. PEG is actually an important indicator of whether or not a growth stock has a good price/performance ratio. PEG is the number obtained by dividing the price-earnings ratio by the growth rate of net profit. The index was first proposed by Peter Lynch and has very important reference value for investment growth stocks. In simple terms, a company with stable and rapid growth has a very high investment value when the P/E ratio is lower than the net profit growth rate (PEG is less than 1). For example, the company's net profit growth for a company that has continued to grow steadily is 40%. At this time, the price-earnings ratio of the company's stock price is 30 times. At this time, such growth stocks are worth investing.

When we use the PEG indicator stock picking, we need to pay attention to the most important thing:

1. There are clouds of art: adapting to local conditions and defeating the enemy. Therefore, we can't put it on board, but we must choose the appropriate standard according to the actual situation. For example, in China's A-share market, where there are few wolves, there will only be great panic under the condition that the P/E ratio will be lower than the growth rate of net profit (PEG is less than 1). In some countries, PEG is often less than when the stock exceeds supply. After 1 will continue to fall. Therefore, depending on the circumstances, we may adjust it according to the market environment.

2. Note whether the net profit growth includes a large non-recurring profit or loss. To use the price-earnings ratio to compare net profit growth after deducting non-recurring gains and losses.

3. The base profit of net profit last year was very low, and the historical performance of the company was not stable. Such indicators are not applicable to stocks that have lost stocks or have had their initial reversal.

IV. Stages of outbreak growth The most important thing for the buying of bull stocks

We must not only know the most important thing in stock selection in terms of investment, but if we want to obtain faster and more excess returns, we will choose to break out in the company's performance. On the eve of the stock exchange and before the stock price is pulled up sharply, it is the most time-saving, most efficient, and most profitable. Then we need to pay attention to those factors and conditions before the breakthrough point of performance?

1. The industry is huge. One is in the sunset industry, and the company has developed into a giant in the industry, there is not much room for growth, think how it can grow behind it? Therefore, companies that want to invest in explosive growth must try to choose a sunrise industry that can grow very quickly.

2. The company's products are of subversive significance. The company's products are very competitive, enabling consumers to have a better sense of experience than ever before, while the price is affordable to the general public. For example, Apple’s flat-panel smart phones have subverted the original small-screen mobile phones, not only the rapid development of Apple, but also led to the rapid development of the entire new industry structure. Many mobile phone manufacturers that seize this opportunity are also rapidly growing.

3. The company's products are in short supply. Even if the company worked overtime, the company's products were still in short supply, and the growth of its performance was constrained by insufficient production capacity. At the moment, there was no way to sell more products and it was not possible to quickly improve its performance.

4. The new production capacity is about to be released. The company's new production capacity and new projects are about to start production. The company's previous product in short supply, combined with the company's new production capacity is about to release, think about the release of new production capacity will be able to quickly sell out, the company's operating income will increase significantly, the performance will also be explosive growth, the stock price does not want to rise difficult.

5. The interest rate of , which is , is stable, and it is better to keep improving. The increase or decrease in the gross profit margin of a company reflects the competition in the industry. If the competition in the industry is very fierce, in order to sell their own products, all of them are fighting for price promotions at price cuts, which will inevitably lead to a rapid and sharp drop in gross profit margin. It is difficult for such a harsh competitive market environment to step out of the bull stocks in the short term.

6. There is a large amount of cash in the hands and there is an urgency for mergers and acquisitions. Many Ushimata shares are accompanied by corporate mergers and acquisitions during the outbreak. Good mergers and acquisitions can not only attract the pursuit of funds, but they can make the company's performance grow in an extensible manner after the merger and acquisition, resulting in explosive growth of the company's performance, resulting in a lot of Super bull stocks. The short-term gains of such stocks are staggering, and they are Lifeng thick.

7. The trend of the company's stocks has been heavy, and the stock price has not been heavily speculated at the bottom. In general, stocks that have not been significantly hyped have continued to increase in volume, and there is a relatively high probability that the main agencies will raise funds. At this time, we combined the analysis of the company's fundamentals, and other companies' stock prices after a substantial increase in volume shrinkage callback stabilization, that is a good opportunity to intervene.

V. Growth stocks sell the most important thing.

The birth of a company must experience: Start-up (instability) - Growth (rapid growth) - Mature (slow growth) - Recession (stop growth starts to decline) These four periods, so any stock it It will not grow fast forever, and we do grow stocks as fast as we can during the middle period.

Then when is the time for the growth stocks to sell?

1. The growth of the business slowed down. After a rapid growth of the company's performance, it began to show signs of a significant slowdown in growth, and judged that the decline in the company's growth was not a temporary one, but a long-term downward trend.

2. Serious overdraft. The long-term sharp rise in the company's share price after the valuation is very ridiculous, the price-earnings ratio higher than the performance of the company several times, the stock price is overdrawn.

3. Significant positive growth. The company has a large number of positive announcements, but the stock price is not rising, then this time may be the main market institutions are taking advantage of good shipments, and at this time we should pay attention to carefully look at how likely the company continues to grow rapidly, if the probability is not very large It's time to sell it.

4. You must change your mistakes. When you find yourself making serious mistakes in your previous analysis, you must dare to admit your mistakes and take advantage of the fact that you haven’t sold out. Mistakes can be changed to a hero, muddy feet deep regret is late!

5. Discovered better and more suitable stocks. When we found that it was significantly better than the individual stocks and the price was more reasonable, then we should take the opportunity to change positions and convert shares.


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